WPTC crop update as of 5 October 2025

WPTC members during their Board meeting and the 2025 Tomato News Conference on 5 October 2025 established the preliminary world production estimate for 2025 at just below 40.3 million tonnes, down 12% from the 45.8 million tonnes processed globally in 2024.

The main changes are a large reduction of the production in the AsiaPacific region (mainly in China), with a smaller drop in the European Union, while production in North America increases.

These figures will be updated when final production numbers are available as production continues in several countries.

AMITOM COUNTRIES

According to the information shared by AMITOM members, the 2025 harvest is now nearly finished in most countries with a provisional volume of tomatoes processed estimated at 16.6 million tonnes, 3% less than the 17.2 million tonnes from 2024.

OTHER NORTHERN HEMISPHERE COUNTRIES

CALIFORNIA

This season has been a record for California. It is a “Unicorn Season” something we have heard could exist, but have never experienced or seen with our own eyes, until this season. A few key factors (not all) were:

• The reduction of acreage meant plantings were on the very best soils
• Water availability
• Excellent Weather, during planting, throughout the Spring ,during bloom, crop development, and during harvest.
• The extreme high temperatures that were experienced over the last few seasons didn’t happen this year.

This all translated to very little stress for the crop at any point in the season. This allowed for a 18.75% increase in yield from our historical 5 year average. In consequence, the production estimate has been raised to 11.75 million short tons, 10.65 million metric tonnes. 

CANADA

The estimate remains 475,000 tonnes.

CHINA

The total volume in China is about 4.9 million tonnes, including 3.02 million tonnes in Northern Xinjiang, 1.07 million tonnes in Southern Xinjiang, 0.76 million tonnes in Inner Mongolia, and 60,000 tonnes in Gansu-Ningxia.

In the Inner Mongolia region, 20% of the planting area was severely affected by heavy rains and floods from July to August, causing a significant production decline.

82 factories were running, a decrease of 24 compared to the 2024 crop, equivalent to the 2020 level. The daily capacity is 214,000 tonnes, a decrease of 60,000 tonnes compared to 2024 (-22%).

The 2025 season has been shortened by 22 days compared with 2024, only 50% of full capacity.

Up to on 30th September,the raw material price for China in 2025 is 67 USD/t. This is an increase of 2 USD/t compared to May 2025, but compared to 2024, it dropped by 9 USD/t. 

Compared to 2024，the cumulative trade figures over eight months in China were gradually tending to incease. The total export of bulk and repack tomato products (HS CODE 200290) was 0.77 million tonnes, a year-on-year increase of 3% compared to 2024. and the total of bulk was 0.46 million tonnes, a year-on-year increase of 10% compared to 2024.

It is estimated that the volume will reach 6 to 7 million tonnes in 2026, primarily due to:

• Considering the natural growth of the market.
• The reasonable production level for China is between 6-8 million tonnes over the past 20 years.
• The 2025 production fell significantly below the level.

JAPAN

The total volume processed in 2025 is about 25,000 tonnes from 425 hectares. Expectations are for 430 hectares to be planted in 2026 to process 26,000 tonnes. 

SOURTHERN HEMISPHERE COUNTRIES

ARGENTINA

The total harvested area for 2025 reached 7,300 hectares, with a production output of 620,250 processed tonnes. Record yields were achieved for early- and mid-season tomatoes, while late-season tomatoes recorded average yields.

For the 2025/26 season, plantations have begun with fewer wind-related issues than usual. Nationwide, a reduced planted area of approximately 6,000 hectares is expected, with a projected production of 550,000 tonnes. Currently, one-third of the planned area has been planted. The milder winter has raised concerns about potential pest pressure on early-season tomatoes, as pests are likely to have survived on overwintering hosts.

The reduction in planted area can be attributed to several factors: stock levels in domestic processing plants, slower market demand, and increased competition from tomato paste imports from Chile and China. These conditions have led growers to scale back on planting for the current season.

AUSTRALIA

The forecast has been reduced to 166,000 tonnes to be processed in 2026 by two processors. 

CHILE

About 14.000 hectares should be planted for the 2026 crop, for a crop of approximately 1.3 million tonnes. There is a delay in plan ting due to rains, but it is too early  to determine if it will delay the harvest. 

PERU

A total volume of 150,000 tonnes is expected for this coming crop. Harvesting is now starting and should continue until February 2026.

SOUTH AFRICA

South Africa ended on 160,000 tonnes for 2025 season, as planned. It was a good season.  

The forecast for the 2026 season is not clear, but the first estimate is 130,000 tonnes or even less, a 20% decline on the total volumes for 2026.

Source: WPTC