Can Egypt’s desert turn into farmland?

Earlier this year, President El-Sisi inaugurated the first phase of “The future of Egypt” agricultural project for Sustainable Development in the New Delta region. This project aims to transform desert areas into farmland for crop export. However, critics question its feasibility due to soaring food price inflation and water scarcity.
 
The “Future of Egypt” is considered the first venture to achieve self-sufficiency and export agricultural surplus. The project is also meant to reduce the bill of imports through securing hard currency and achieving the sustainable development goals.

Whereas ten years ago, the two-hour drive on the highway from Cairo to El Dabaa on the north coast, all there was to see was little more than rocks and sand; now we can see miles and miles of intensively farmed land on each side. This represents the first stage of the Future of Egypt project, which will eventually encompass 2.2m feddans (9,240 sq km, or 3,500 sq miles), an area similar to the size of Cyprus.
“The map of the Egyptian desert is changing colour,” declared a recent promotional video, “from yellow to green”.

Satellite images reveal numerous fields equipped with center-pivot irrigation systems, where sprinklers rotate over crops, with some fields reaching up to a kilometer in diameter. An artificial river, stretching 70 miles (114 km), is nearing completion at a cost exceeding $5 billion (£3.9 billion). Upon completion, this river will supply 3.5 billion cubic meters of water annually to the fields.

This multibillion-dollar megaproject represents just over half of the Egyptian government's initiative to convert 16,800 square kilometers of desert into farmland by 2027. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi unveiled this ambitious project shortly after assuming power in 2014 through a military coup.

Despite efforts, Egypt is already facing an annual water shortage of 7 billion cubic meters, according to the UN. The country is also grappling with austerity measures to tackle a debt-to-GDP ratio that has soared above 90% under the Sisi administration, primarily due to extensive spending on infrastructure megaprojects and military equipment.

Critics of these costly land-reclamation projects question their impact on public finances and the environment. While military-led agriculture initiatives have increased exports, they have failed to curb the severe food-price inflation, which was the fifth-highest in the world as of April.

Richard Tutwiler, a former director of the Cairo-based Research Institute for a Sustainable Environment, argues that calling it "reclamation" is misleading because the Western desert was never fertile to begin with. Unlike the rich, nutrient-dense soils of the Nile valley, the desert's sands are barren and require massive irrigation to support crops—water that cannot be reused.

In the Nile valley, water is efficiently reused multiple times from Upper Egypt to the Mediterranean, with runoff re-entering the river or underground aquifers. However, in the desert, water simply disappears into the sand. Most irrigation water for these new desert fields is drawn from finite groundwater reserves, which have been increasingly exploited under the Sisi administration through the construction of numerous pumping stations.

Tutwiler warns that although there is a large supply of groundwater beneath the Western desert, it is limited. A recent study found that groundwater depletion in this area has doubled since Sisi took office. He cautions that depleting this resource will leave future generations without water in the desert.

The increasing use of wells in Egypt's desert agriculture is not only depleting groundwater levels but also raising salinity, leading to reduced crop yields and higher farming costs, according to agrarian sociologist Saker El Nour. Despite the government's goal of reclaiming 16,800 square kilometers of desert by 2027, only about 20%—or 3,400 square kilometers—has been achieved, a figure El Nour believes is exaggerated and less productive than claimed.

Since March 2022, Egypt has faced soaring food prices, with real food inflation reaching the highest in the world by October 2022, according to the World Bank. Although the country has also increased its food exports, particularly of high-value crops like fruit and nuts, this has not alleviated domestic inflation.

President Sisi has defended the strategy of using reclaimed land to grow cash crops for export, arguing that it is essential for reducing the trade deficit and generating foreign currency. Meanwhile, the government has implemented austerity measures, including raising fuel prices and tripling the cost of subsidized bread, to address mounting debt. Despite international pressure to reduce spending, Sisi announced plans in May to invest an additional 190 billion Egyptian pounds (£3 billion) in new infrastructure to support his agricultural initiatives.

Sources: The Guardian, The National News
Photograph: Handout