WPTC 2018 production estimate revised down to 36.5 million tonnes

The latest survey amongst WPTC members and other contacts has lead to a reduction in the 2018 world production estimate to 36.5 million tonnes, half a million tonnes lower than the latest estimate and 1.2 million tonnes lower than 2017 final production (-3.3%). 
 

AMITOM members in the EU

In France, the succession of rainy periods is disrupting the planting which is about ten days late in the south-west region and a week in the south-east. This delay should not have any serious incidence and all the surfaces should  be planted. The forecast remains 185,000 tonnes.
 
In Greece, the weather conditions in April and early May have generally been good, except for one episode of rain and hail which fortunately affected the tomato fields very little. Transplanting is now finished in the south and will end in a few days in the north where it is already at 95%. The plants are growing well with no diseases and the forecast is maintained at 420,000 tonnes. 
 
In the North of Italy, the weather this spring has been unstable with a generally rainy first half of April, a hot second half of the month and low temperature and rains and some hail since the beginning of May in all areas. Consequently, the conditions are not ideal for planting and plant growth and there is concern that this could favour the development of bacterial diseases. About 40% of the surfaces remain to be planted and operations could end in about three weeks if the conditions are good. Due to these conditions the crop could be delayed by one or two weeks. As expected, the surfaces have been reduced overall by 5 to 7% compared with 2017 and the estimate of 2.5 million tonnes is confirmed. 
 
In the Centre and South of Italy, the weather situation has been similar and has led to a 7 to 10 days delay in transplanting. The rains have, however, enabled to fill the reservoirs which means there is no more worry about water availability for irrigation this summer. Transplanting is not done in the best conditions but delay could be recovered if the weather conditions are good from now on. The surfaces planted will be reduced by 5 to 10% and the processing intentions are estimated at 2.4 million tonnes, a 5% reduction on 2017’s 2.55 million tonnes. 
The negotiations have just been concluded at the same price as last year of 87 €/t for round tomatoes and 97 €/t for long tomatoes. Processors were hoping to reduce the gap between the two prices, for which there is no serious justification especially as some long tomatoes are used for dicing. 
 
The total estimate for Italy therefore stands at 4.9 million tonnes, but will depend on the farm yields. 
 
In Portugal, the situation is similar to Spain with planting delays of at least 15 days due to the rains which at least had the favorable impact of filling the water reserves, so there is no more worry about water availability during the summer. The weather has now improved with the temperatures starting to rise. The situation is very complex and not totally clear yet and it is probable that some of the surfaces will not be planted. It is therefore difficult at this stage to make an educated forecast so the last figure of 1.4 million tonnes is kept for the moment. As the harvest will be late, good weather will be needed in September. 
 
The situation is quite complex in Spain with soil preparation and transplanting operation seriously affected by the rains in the second half of April and early May, and having to stop and start. Overall, there is a 20 days delay in both Andalucía, where planting has just finished, and in Extremadura where it continues. Similarly, there is a 10 days delay in Navarra. Due to the delay, some seedlings were lost or planted past their best. In Extremadura, it is estimated that the final surface planted could be 5 or 10% lower than initially planned for this crop but this will be confirmed when all is planted. Moreover, some fields in Vegas Altas were affected by hail. Due to the delay in planting, a large proportion of the crop should be harvested in the higher risk period of the second half of September. The estimate, which was in a range of 2.6 to 2.7 million tonnes is now closer to 2.6 million tonnes. 
 

Other AMITOM members

In Russia, the draft forecast remains 500,000 tonnes to be processed in 2018 season. No new players, but there are plans to increase the production from the existing factories in KBR and Astrakhan.
 
In Turkey, the forecast numbers have been raised to 1.5 million tonnes. The planting in the south has been completed without any interference and the planting in the north was around 30% through as of 8 May. Some rains last week interrupted the planting for a few days but did cause any damage to already planted surfaces. For anyone who follows the Forex rates they can see that what has changed in the cost of raw material in Euro/USD terms. 
 
In Ukraine, the weather has been good, hotter than usual and with no rain since the beginning of May. Consequently, there is no delay in planting operations which should be completed on schedule. Already 50 to 60% of the plants are in the fields. The volume is confirmed at 750,000 tonnes.
 

Southern hemisphere members

In Argentina, the harvest finished before mid-April with  426,000 tonnes processed, from 6,232 ha.
The distribution by regions was:

• Mendoza 172,550 t in 2233 ha, 
• San Juan 162,360 t in 1959 ha, 
• Rio Negro 33,000 t in 450 ha, 
• La Rioja 24,000 t in 390 ha, 
• NOA 33,000 t in 1200 ha (fresh market by-product).

In Australia, the final production was 227, 636 tonnes
 
In Chile, the harvest finished  on 1^stMay, a few days after the original schedule due some rains in the southern area. In general terms, this was a good season with better average yields per hectare  than excepted at 96 t/ha. Consequently final production was 1,211,000 tonnes from the 12,550 hectares planted. 
 
In South Africa, the harvest season in the north of the country was delayed with about two weeks due to lower temperatures. The harvesting operations were stopped on 14 May due to out of season rain. It is early in the season but the yields per hectare  are currently  similar to the five year average. The impact of white fly and hawker activity (where informal traders  buy product directly from the farm) on the total volume is currently uncertain.
The projection for the crop is currently 165,000 tonnes compared to 180,000 tonnes last year. The main reason for the lower crop is the effect of the drought in the Western Cape where some of the factories have not open due to the unavailability of irrigation water.
 

Other WPTC countries

In California, the majority of the planting should be completed by May 20^th with just a small portion to remain after that. So far plant development looks good with fewer disease issues than last year at this time. The official estimate remains at 12.0 million short tons (10.886 million metric tonnes) and a new estimate will be released by NASS on May 31. Price negotiations continue at this time.  
 
In Canada, preliminary contract tonnage for Ontario tomato processors is 467,079 short tons (423,727 metric tonnes). Ontario tomato prices for 2018 have not yet been established, as part of the pricing calculation is dependent upon the California price. Spring was late arriving, with unseasonably cold temperatures into the beginning of May however the weather is finally cooperating and  temperatures getting warmer.
 
In China, transplanting started mid-April in Xinjiang and has now finished. The weather has been normal, except for a cold spell and some snow in Northern Xinjiang around 7 May, but the latest information is that it had little impact on the seedlings already planted.The surfaces have been reduced by the growers and the variety selection adjusted.
The weather of Inner Mongolia is good, and the temperature raise early. Thus the transplanting is 7 days in advance compared with other years. According to latest research, a total surface of around 154,000 Mu (10,268 hectares) will be planted. This is 5% lower than 2017, and a little higher than the early estimation in March.
The estimate regarding the total surface planted in China remains 630,000 mu (42,000 hectares), which could mean a production of between 4.1 and 4.4 million tonnes, based on last year’s yields.   
 
In Brazil, the surfaced planted remains estimated at 16,558 ha, which with a yield of 85 t/ha would bring a total production of 1,407,430 tonnes.
 
In Japan, the crop update for 2018 remains 32,000 tonnes from 450 hectares.  
 

Non-member countries

The US Midwest finds itself with a  mixed bag of weather with a line of demarcation running west to east about half way through the growing area. The area south of this line has experienced a tremendous start to the season, good temperatures, good planting conditions and just enough rain to get things off to a good start. The northern part of the area has experienced consistent rain events and are behind in planting and have been very cool, sometimes as many as 30 °F different between north and south.