US Inventories on December 1, 2025 (comment)

This first stock situation for the 2025/2026 marketing year follows that of June 2025, which highlighted a significant increase and a sizeable surplus in tomato product inventories in the United States.

In order to maintain the balance between volumes produced and quantities in stock that is essential to the smooth operation of the US tomato processing industry (see also related articles below), operators intended to reduce the quantities processed during the 2025 season. However, the “unicorn” season resulted in more quantities produced than in 2024.

With a processed volume of 11.02 million tonnes, up 4.5% on the 2024 season, and apparent monthly consumption from June to December up by 3.6% to nearly 1.08 million tonnes (fresh tomato equivalent), the US industry has managed to only slightly reduce their inventory.

The quantities physically present in US warehouses on December 1 stood at 10.35 million tonnes (raw material equivalent), 11.6% up from last December inventory.

Indeed, apparent consumption rose slightly over the last 12 months. It gained some ground compared with the twelve-month apparent consumption recorded on December 1, 2024; the annual absorption rate thus rose from 9.857 to 10.01 million tonnes or, in monthly terms, from 821,000 t to 834,000 t, an increase of 1.5%. Even though it remains low, it is nearly back to the level of December 2023 (837,000 t per month).

If they were to remain unchanged over the next six months, seasonal consumption patterns would enable to reduce the stock levels recorded at the beginning of December by about 5.7 million t in June leading to a stock situation on June 1 of close to 4.6 million t, a volume slightly in excess but likely to cover US requirements for a little over six months. Inventories have been successfully reduced, and while the industry has faced more severe surpluses in the past, it is essential to maintain the reduction momentum initiated last year. Indeed, current processing intentions represent a significant decrease compared to the previous campaign, directly supporting the broader goal of aligning inventory with market demand.

If one were to assume the same six-month movement in 2026 that was experienced in 2025, it would have US annual disappearance at just over 11 million short tons (10 million metric tonnes).

Some complementary data
Growth in quantities processed by the US industry (California and other processing states).

Seasonal trends in apparent consumption of tomato products.

Evolution and composition of annual sales (December-December).

The global landscape remains consistent with the previous year, with CLFP figures pointing toward another year-over-year growth in reprocessing paste sales.

Source: CLFP