US Inventories as of March 1, 2025 (comment)

08/04/2025

François-Xavier Branthôme

CLFP

California,

North America

The high inventory levels in June 2024 and the decline in apparent consumption are expected to result in a slightly excess inventory position at the end of the 2024-2025 marketing year.

According to figures published by the California League of Food Producers (CLFP) on March 28, total US stocks of tomato products (expressed in fresh tomato equivalent) stood at approximately 7.74 million metric tons (t) as of March 1, 2025. Despite the substantial reduction in processing activity (-12.9%) during the last season, the high level of stocks as of June 1, 2024 (5.12 million t, up 85% compared to June 2023) and the slight slowdown in apparent consumption over the past nine months (7.86 million t, down 2.1%) have logically led to a significant increase (14%) in the quantities physically present in US warehouses as of March 1, 2025.

After the usual seasonal acceleration in apparent consumption over the June-December period (see related articles and additional information at the end of the article), apparent consumption over the past three months has seen a significant decline: over the past twelve months as a whole, this results in a monthly absorption rate of around 780,000 t, the lowest recorded since March 2007, and 7% lower than that of March 2024 (840,000 t).

In fact, the total quantities of tomato products recorded in CLFP stocks (7.745 million t, some of which have already been sold but not yet delivered) show a significant increase (+964,000 t, or +14%) compared to March 2024; three-quarters of these quantities consist of tomato paste (5.75 million t), of which 4.03 million tonnes of bulk tomato paste are intended for sale, particularly for export. As of March 1, 2025, tomato paste inventories (for sale and for reprocessing) show a uniform increase of 8% compared to those in March 2024.
These figures result from annual sales (March 2024-March 2025) estimated at more than 7.2 million tonnes of finished products, an increase of nearly 7% compared to the rate recorded in March 2024, which combines sales of 6.3 million tonnes of bulk tomato paste (an annual increase of 0.8%) and 0.9 million tonnes intended for reprocessing (a remarkable increase of 86% compared to the performance recorded in March 2024). Alongside the paste sector, annual sales of "other" products have declined by more than one million tonnes, a decline of more than 30% in one year.

Given the current state (as of March 1, 2025) of available quantities (7.745 million tonnes) and the apparent monthly consumption rate (domestic and exports, 780,000 tonnes), the US industry has quantities equivalent to just under nine months of consumption, a slightly surplus situation compared to the seven-month threshold generally considered satisfactory at the end of winter. However, it would be risky to assess the US processing outlook for the upcoming 2025 season solely based on the current stock situation and recent consumption dynamics: the recent decisions by the US government, announced on April 2, regarding generalized customs duties on all products from around the world, will inevitably have an impact on global trade in tomato products, particularly on import and export flows involving US companies or operators. The potential consequences on US consumption and demand cannot yet be assessed, much less analyzed: the Tomato News Editorial Team will return with more details, analyses, and reactions from various organizations and individuals in the next few days and weeks.