Morning Star Tomato Bites June 2026 Release

California Crop Outlook Remains Encouraging Following May USDA NASS Report

Morning Star colleague Aaron Giampietro returns with the June edition of TOMATO BITES by Morning Star, providing an early look at the 2026 California processing tomato season. We review the latest USDA NASS report, the impact of an exceptionally warm spring on crop development, current water supply conditions, and key factors influencing global tomato markets. From California’s early crop progress to production challenges in Europe, Chile, and China, this update highlights the trends shaping supply, demand, and market conditions as harvest approaches.

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Hello everyone, this is Aaron Giampietro from The Morning Star Packing Company, with your June sixth, two thousand twenty-six Tomato Bite update.

The first signs of summer are here, and as California finishes transplanting, we can begin looking at the early indicators shaping the two thousand twenty-six processing tomato season — both here in California and across the global tomato industry.

On May twenty-ninth, USDA NASS released its updated tomato processing report. The updated estimate calls for one hundred and eighty-five thousand planted acres, producing nine point nine million paid short tons at an average yield of approximately fifty-three and a half tons per acre. This represents a relatively stable outlook compared to the January estimate of nine point eight million paid short tons, as California completes transplanting and prepares for the start of harvest.

Early expectations for the two thousand twenty-six California crop remain generally encouraging, though weather has already emerged as a key variable shaping both yield potential and crop development. Southern growing regions are already beginning to show color, indicating a potentially earlier-than-normal start to the season.

This accelerated development follows an exceptionally warm spring. Between February and April, both San Joaquin and Sacramento vallies experienced temperatures roughly six degrees Fahrenheit above average, with Sacramento recording its third warmest and San Joaquin its warmest three-month period in the last one hundred and thirty-two years.

The warm spring also accelerated California snowpack melt. After strong storms helped rebuild snow levels earlier this year, the snowpack declined rapidly during the warm period, losing approximately seventy-five percent of its volume within one month. Fortunately, California reservoir storage remains strong, currently exceeding one hundred and ten percent of average, supporting water availability for the current growing season. However, California water management remains highly dependent on future winter storms to rebuild snowpack and reservoir storage for future crop years.

The same variable weather patterns have also created an interesting maturity curve for tomatoes. Early warmth advanced fruit development, while late May brought an unusual period of rain and cooler temperatures that temporarily slowed progress. A return to warmer weather restarted development, and we continue to monitor normal crop factors such as plant health and maturity timing as harvest approaches.

Outside California, the global tomato industry continues to face uncertainty heading into the two thousand twenty-six season. Europe has already experienced periods of extreme heat during early crop development. Chile finished below forecast following an unusual late-season rain event that delivered more than four inches of rainfall in twenty-four hours, reducing final crop expectations by approximately eight percent. China has reduced its processing forecast by more than one million metric tons, with continued uncertainty around final supply levels.

Energy also remains a significant global factor. European natural gas costs continue to create challenges, with Dutch TTF futures for August two thousand twenty-six approximately fifty percent higher than last August and more than five times higher than comparable U.S. natural gas futures. California processors continue to benefit from access to a stable and well-supplied U.S. energy market entering this season.

We’ll be back next month with an update on California crop startup and thoughts on the final CLFP stock-on-hand report for two thousand twenty-five crop ending inventory levels. As always, we invite you to visit us this season in California and see our operations firsthand.

In the meantime, please visit our website for the latest market information, and contact us with any questions or comments. Thank you.