News
Italy: slight drop in 2024 opening prices
After several years of spectacular rises, Italian quotations for new crop products are down by around 5% this year, but remain above the opening prices of the previous three years. Due to adverse weather conditions, processors expect an out-of-stock situation at the end of the marketing period in the months of June and July 2025.
On October 11, the Emilia Region Chamber of Commerce published B-to-B quotations for tomato products produced during the last processing season (2024/2025).
All product categories showed significant declines compared with last year's opening quotations, ranging in Euros from 3.9% for pulps to 6% for passata. Opening prices in Euros remain 8% to 18% higher than their averages for the previous three years, depending on product category. Expressed in US dollars, and taking into account variations in the EUR/USD exchange rate, prices for products from the 2024 harvest show slightly more marked declines.
In the words of a joint commentary published by the processing industries of northern and southern Italy, "Italian prices show a slight decline of around 5% on B to B tomato product markets related to the contracts concluded before the start of the crop 2024.
The price reduction was driven by cost adjustment (mainly raw material from 150 to 140 EUR/t, and packaging cost reduction).
The forecasts and expectations for the 2024 crop have been largely discounted in Northern Italy, with a production deficit of about 30% (due to the lowest yields per hectare in the last 10 years, caused by excess rainfall in spring and adverse weather conditions during harvest).
This has caused a shortage of quantities and a gap between contract volumes and real production volumes, and we expect an out-of-stock situation at the end of the marketing period in the months of June and July 2025.
In southern Italy, the crop was better and the final volume slightly exceeded the initial forecast, but processing yields have been lower than normal and consequently the volumes of finished products obtained do not exceed initial plans.
Already, operators are seeing an increase and recovery on market prices, to the levels of last year or higher, but the new prices are not yet reflected in current orders and shipments, which are based on pre-season contracts.”
The price reduction was driven by cost adjustment (mainly raw material from 150 to 140 EUR/t, and packaging cost reduction).
The forecasts and expectations for the 2024 crop have been largely discounted in Northern Italy, with a production deficit of about 30% (due to the lowest yields per hectare in the last 10 years, caused by excess rainfall in spring and adverse weather conditions during harvest).
This has caused a shortage of quantities and a gap between contract volumes and real production volumes, and we expect an out-of-stock situation at the end of the marketing period in the months of June and July 2025.
In southern Italy, the crop was better and the final volume slightly exceeded the initial forecast, but processing yields have been lower than normal and consequently the volumes of finished products obtained do not exceed initial plans.
Already, operators are seeing an increase and recovery on market prices, to the levels of last year or higher, but the new prices are not yet reflected in current orders and shipments, which are based on pre-season contracts.”
Speaking outside official representative organizations, as there is no body outside Italy responsible for collecting and publishing relevant and reliable data on the subject of tomato product prices, other European operators have been drawing on their market experience to state that "talking about paste, the price has decreased on average around 25% compared with last year. For low brix products (passatas and pizza sauces), [processors have experienced] a decrease from 15% to 25% depending on the products and for diced tomatoes a decrease of around 20%. It should be kept in mind that costs have decreased by about 14% compared to last year”.
Mirroring what has been stated by Italian operators, these industry sources indicate that in their case, "now [they] are seeing a price increase versus what was indicated for low-brix products and diced tomatoes, due to the bad crop experienced in Northern Italy," adding that "there is clearly a lack of these products in the market now.”
Mirroring what has been stated by Italian operators, these industry sources indicate that in their case, "now [they] are seeing a price increase versus what was indicated for low-brix products and diced tomatoes, due to the bad crop experienced in Northern Italy," adding that "there is clearly a lack of these products in the market now.”
As a reminder, the following diagram illustrates the cyclical nature of world production in parallel – by way of example – with the evolution of Italian opening quotations for Hot Break double-concentrated paste. The last long-lasting market depressions, after 2009 and 2015, came after episodes of excessive production, which had been preceded by significant rises in world prices for tomato products, notably in 2008 and 2014.
Some complementary data
Evolution of Italian opening prices for tomato products in Euros per tonne, by category over the last twenty-two years.
Evolution of Italian opening prices for tomato products in Euros per tonne, by category over the last twenty-two years.
Sources: Borsa Merci Parma – Camera Di Commercio Dell'emilia, TDM, professional sources
