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2019-2030: Shift Toward Asia and the Rise of Convenience
Euromonitor’s sales trend forecasts through 2030 suggest a gradual reshaping of global market balances. While historic markets maintain significant weight, Asia-Pacific is emerging as a major new growth hub, steadily altering the geography of consumption. This shift appears to be coupled with a growing interest in ready-to-use food solutions, such as sauces and prepared meals, at the expense of products requiring longer preparation times. This move toward greater convenience likely reflects evolving urban lifestyles, where processed products are increasingly integrated into diets formerly centered on fresh produce or “homemade” preparations.
In this article, we undertake an analysis of Euromonitor data for global tomato products sales over the 2019-2030 period (expressed in thousands of tonnes) across the four main categories: Meals and Soups, Tomato Pastes and Purées, Sauces, and Sheld Stable Tomatoes. This reveals highly contrasted market dynamics based on product type and geographical zone.
In 2025—the final year of confirmed statistics—the cumulative volume of tomato products marketed globally reached just over 35.3 million tonnes (t) of finished products, a 9% increase over the 32.6 million t recorded in 2019. This total comprises 3 million t of canned tomatoes, 4.1 million t of tomato pastes and purées, 9.6 million t of sauces, and 18.6 million t of ready meals and soups.
The Sauces Sector
The sauce sector shows the most spectacular growth, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) (see additional information at the end of the article) of nearly 3% over the 2019-2030 period, driven largely by Asia-Pacific. In this region, volumes increased by 30% between 2019 (2.3 million t) and 2025 (2.7 million t) and are expected to grow another 26% by 2030 to reach 3.7 million t, making this sector a primary engine of global growth. Latin Americanmarkets are also contributing to this development with solid, steady growth, rising from 1.16 million t in 2019 to 1.6 million t in 2025, potentially reaching nearly 2 million t by 2030. For both regions, the annual growth rate is between 4.5% and 5% (CAGR). By comparison, average annual rates in Europe (Western and Eastern) do not exceed 1.4% (CAGR), for a total expected European volume of roughly 2.6 million t in 2030. Dynamics are even weaker in North America, which saw a slight dip during the COVID pandemic and an average annual growth of 0.7%, with volumes expected at approximately 2.2 million t by 2030. These slow growth rates, bordering on stagnation, are characteristic of mature markets.
The Meals and Soups Sector
The global market is also defined by the quantitative dominance of ready meals and soups. With 17.7 million t in 2019, 18.6 million t in 2025, and nearly 20 million t projected for 2030, this remains the largest segment in terms of absolute tonnage. Here again, Asia-Pacific displays its dominance across the period, with sales volumes of 5.5 million t in 2019 and forecasts of 6.3 million t for 2030. However, this region does not have the fastest annual growth rate: starting from nearly equivalent volumes (5.2 million t in 2019), sales in Europe (Western and Eastern) are expected to increase between 2026 and 2030 at a rate of 1.8% to 2.1%, reaching 7.6 million t by 2030—an average annual rate of 1.7% over the decade (versus 1.3% in Asia-Pacific).
Conversely, North American sales of ready meals and soups saw negative growth (-1%) during 2019-2025 and expects weak growth (+1%) for 2026-2030. This results in a notable decline following the 2020 peak, likely an effect of the end of lockdowns and stockpiling practices. The 2030 volume forecast (4.89 million t) is 2% lower than 2019 sales (4.97 million t). This segment in North America is the only one that has not returned to its 2020 levels—a strong signal of a structural change in consumption or a substitution by fresh or alternative products. Globally, the annual growth rate for this sector is expected to settle around 1.1% for the 2019-2030 period.
The Tomato Pastes and Purées Sector
With volumes significantly lower than the aforementioned sectors, the market for tomato pastes and purées is more fragmented, showing moderate but widespread growth. From 3.8 million t in 2019 to 4.15 million t in 2025, Euromonitor projects an average global annual growth of approximately 2% (CAGR), reaching 4.8 million t by 2030.
Western Europe clearly holds the top global position for this segment, with 1.4 million t sold in 2015, expected to reach 1.56 million t in 2030 (1.66% CAGR). Meanwhile, the Middle East and Africa are emerging markets, credited with 1 million t sold in 2015 and an annual growth perspective of 4.6% (CAGR) for an expected 1.3 million t in 2030. This clear upward trend makes this region a strategic market for these staple products. Latin America is also seeing steady growth at 2.75% (CAGR), expected to bring sales to roughly 830,000 t by 2030. The North American market—the fourth largest—declined slightly between 2019 and 2023 but is expected to see a resurgence (2.2% CAGR) between 2026 and 2030. Overall, however, North American growth in pastes will likely not exceed 0.8% (CAGR), falling far short of the 2% global average and perhaps indicating a consumer preference for more elaborate products.
The shelf Stables Tomatoes Sector
With a global sales volume of 2.86 million t in 2019 and a 2030 forecast of 3.27 million t, the canned tomato sector is both the smallest and most stable. Its relatively low annual growth rate (0.9% CAGR before 2025 and 1.5% after 2026) is explained by the dominance of the North American and Western European markets—two mature, slow-growth markets that account for over three-quarters of global sales. In this highly polarized market, consumption habits seem to remain anchored in Western countries. Unlike sauces, there is no demand explosion in emerging countries; the strongest development prospects (3% CAGR) are in the Middle East and Africa, while Latin America and Asia-Pacific are expected to hover around 0.6% and 0.9% (CAGR) respectively.
General trends
To sum up, Euromonitor data indicates that the global tomato derivative market is shifting firmly toward Asia-Pacific, which is becoming the new consumption hub for sauces and ready meals. This pivot may encourage manufacturers to integrate more local flavors into their recipes, while traditional canned tomatoes lose ground to more elaborate products.
This trend reflects an evolution toward greater food convenience. While Western Europe remains a pillar for base products like purées and pastes, North America shows signs of saturation, suggesting that the “fully processed” model may have reached its limits there. Globally, a convergence is occurring where ready-to-use industrial products are gaining ground over traditional homemade preparations. Following the atypical variations of 2020, the outlook for 2030 suggests these dynamics will continue, with the 2026-2030 period potentially seeing an acceleration, confirming the central role of “convenience food” in global nutrition.
Additional Data
Note: Euromonitor’s forecasting methodology integrates quantitative econometric modeling with qualitative local expertise. At its core, the system utilizes regression-based frameworks to link historical sales data with key macroeconomic drivers—such as GDP, inflation, and disposable income—which are updated quarterly.
Beyond statistical modeling, the approach incorporates structural factors like demographics and urbanization, while analysts apply an “expert layer” to account for industry-specific trends, innovation, and channel shifts. This hybrid model also allows for scenario and shock modeling, ensuring that projections remain market-realistic and adaptable to potential economic disruptions.
Source: Euromonitor
