US Inventories per June 1 (comment)

04/07/2025

Madeleine Royère-Koonings

USA,

North America

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According to the California League of Food Producers (CLFP) report of June 19, 2025, total US stocks of tomato products (expressed as fresh tomato equivalent) stood at around 5.81 million metric tons (t) (6.407 million short tons) on June 1, 2025, up 13.4% on the June 2024 level. Apparent consumption increased by 1.1%, totalling 9.8 million tonnes in the twelve months from June 1, 2024 to June 1, 2025, compared with the previous reference period (see additional information at the end of this article).

Despite a slight upturn between March and June, recent levels of apparent consumption (domestic consumption and exports) are now among the lowest of the last two decades (the last equivalent values date back to the March-December 2007 period).

Monthly sales have remained below 1,000,000 short tons (around 900,000 metric tonnes) since 2022, a level not seen since 2008. This trend contrasts with the overall rise in USA exports, as detailed in recent articles (see linked articles below). Exports now constitute the bulk of apparent consumption (primarily paste destined for international markets), while domestic activity, especially remanufacturing, has slowed. Concurrently, sauce imports have surged considerably over the past two years, with the USA now accounting for 11% of global sauce and ketchup imports.

The December stock from the last season reached 10.3 million short tons (9.3 million metric tonnes), exceeding that of the previous year. This, coupled with a continued slowdown in apparent consumption, indicates an increased supply situation that was first noted in March 2025. At the current operational pace, projections suggest that by June 1, 2025, there were sufficient quantities available to cover approximately seven months of apparent consumption. This volume represents an estimated three-month period beyond what the U.S. industry typically considers an optimal stock level for that specific date.

This situation is similar to that of the period from December 2015 to June 2017. We also need to consider the changes in demography (see additional information at the end of the article). According to the data available today, the stock on June 1 is equivalent to just under 17 kg/capita (a level that has already been reached on several occasions in the past) and the estimated surplus in this context is just over 7 kg (again below the levels recorded in 2016 and 2017).

Despite expectations, the situation remains challenging: only about 63% of the quantities from the last season have been mobilized. This represents one of the lowest mobilization rates in the past twenty years, following a previous low of 62% in 2017.

In fact, June stocks (5.8 mln tonnes) (of which it should be noted that a proportion, even if physically present in factory warehouses, has already been sold) are among the highest in recent years (up 13.4% on June 2024 and 62% on the June average of the previous three years).

The bulk of inventories is made up of concentrates for sale (3.18 mln t, up 15% on June 2024 and 80% on the previous three years); paste for remanufacture (barely higher than June 2024, but up 43% on the previous three years); and “other products” (or products other than paste), up 18% and 40% respectively.

This outlook suggests that the U.S. processing industry will need to operate with great rigor and efficiency in the months ahead. The immediate future of the industry is also tied to several external variables, including campaign conditions and results in the U.S. and worldwide, which will define the commercial environment for the upcoming year. Furthermore, the political and commercial decisions of the Trump administration, particularly those related to tariffs (expected around July 9), will play a significant role.

Some complementary data

Trend in apparent consumption (year-on-year) over the past thirteen years.

Evolution and breakdown of annual US sales of tomato derivatives. The “weight” of concentrates intended for sale is becoming predominant, at the expense of concentrates intended for reprocessing.