Morning Star Tomato Bites, October 2024

Morning Star colleague Aaron Giampietro returns with another TOMATO BITES by Morning Star update. In this edition, he reviews the 2024 tomato harvest, which is projected to conclude at 95% of the USDA NASS report’s forecasted yield by mid-October. Additionally, California’s water supply for the coming year is expected to meet demand, and the East and Gulf Coast dockworker port strike has ended with a tentative agreement.
 

 
Hello everyone, this is Aaron Giampietro from the Morning Star Packing Company with your October 7th, two-thousand twenty-four (2024) Tomato Bite update.
As of October 5th, the cumulative harvest stands at 10.4 million paid short tons. This is 92% of the August USDA NASS estimate of 11.3 million paid short tons, and delivery projections through October 12th should raise the actual total to 95%.

As reported last month, challenges from split-set fruit continued to put pressure on paid field tonnage due to higher rates of both green tomato and related defect deductions. The intensifying green percentages over the past few weeks created some color pressure for tomato paste production. Fortunately, this effect is beginning to ease with more stable field conditions from a quality standpoint. While field yield has dropped below contract, we believe this decline has bottomed out, and we are on track to achieve an approximate 11 million paid short ton crop when harvest completes in about two weeks.

The new Water Year started October 1st with the California Department of Water Resources releasing the Annual Water Supply and Demand Assessment Summary Report, which confirms that water suppliers statewide expect to have adequate supplies to meet demand for the coming year. 

However, with the looming La Niña pattern, uncertainty remains high. With a shift toward more intense storms and less snowpack, investments in forecasting, flood protection, and groundwater recharge are critical to building resilience. The focus remains on ensuring the state can handle both dry conditions and flood risks, especially in critical areas like the Sierra Nevada watersheds.

Shifting focus from the raw material supply chain, dockworkers at East and Gulf Coast ports went on strike as of October 1st, shutting down 36 key ports and disrupting both imports and exports. This marked the first major strike since 1977 and had the potential for widespread economic consequences, though a tentative agreement was reached on October 3rd, minimizing the disruption.

U.S. imports could have faced significant challenges had the strike continued. Approximately $650 million worth of processed tomato goods were imported through these ports in the first seven months of 2024, representing three-quarters of all U.S. processed tomato imports via ocean freight by dollar value.

Had the disruption continued longer, Western European imports, particularly lower concentration purees and sauces, would have felt pressure due to their reliance on Atlantic shipping routes. Global trade data shows that East and Gulf Coast ports handle 90% by value of all processed tomato imports from Western Europe. By our estimate, over 550,000 raw tomato short ton equivalents of these products enter the U.S. annually from Western Europe.

We are pleased to see that the effects of this strike appear to be contained and that operations are on track to return to normal. As we move forward, we as an industry must collectively ensure that our consumers have efficient, timely, and unobstructed access to wholesome, delicious tomato products. Whether sourced from California or abroad, the continued enjoyment of processed tomatoes benefits us all. 

We invite you to contact our team for any inquiries or feedback. Also, please visit our website for the latest newsletters, videos, and industry updates. If you’re attending SIAL Paris, we invite you to visit us at booth 4N-067. We’d love the opportunity to connect and discuss how we can support your business with reliable, high-quality tomato products.  Thank you!

Source: The Morning Star Packing Company