Morning Star Tomato Bites – July 2025

Morning Star colleague Aaron Giampietro is back with another TOMATO BITES by Morning Star update. In this edition, Aaron shares an early look at the 2025 summer harvest, which is set to begin in just a few days in California’s San Joaquin Valley. He covers ideal growing conditions, updated USDA NASS production forecasts, organic pricing developments, and the latest trends in export markets and currency shifts—all key insights as we head into the 2025 tomato processing season. Tune in for a quick but informative snapshot of the current processing tomato landscape.

Hello everyone, this is Aaron Giampietro from the Morning Star Packing Company with your July 8th, 2025 Tomato Bites update.

Summer harvest kicks off in just a few days here at Morning Star in the San Joaquin Valley. Spring and early summer weather have been nearly perfect for tomato growing, with warm temperatures maximizing degree accumulation without any heat or humidity stress. With adequate surface water supplies reducing the need for saltier groundwater, vines are healthy and robust, and early crop volumes are looking strong.

These conditions seem to align with the USDA NASS updated tomato processing report released on May 29^th. The January estimate called for 200,000 planted acres, yielding 10.2 million short tons at 51 tons per acre. The May report update raised planted acres to 205,000 acres and total production to 10.3 million short tons, with yield revised down to 50.2 tons per acre.

With another 90 days of growing ahead, weather will, as always, be the determining factor in final crop performance. And with a smaller total tonnage planned this year, we should not expect any supply chain or processing capacity constraints relative to keeping up with crop readiness.

On the pricing front, the California Tomato Growers Association (CTGA) has announced the 2025 organic base price of $137 dollars per ton. This is down from last year’s price of $145 dollars, a decrease of about 6% percent. Morning Star, while not signing the CTGA contract, has set the same base price and will offer its own early and late season premiums directly to growers to compensate for the risks associated with growing organic tomatoes in these periods.

Shifting from pricing to trade, data from the FAS Global Agricultural Trade System shows that U.S. bulk tomato paste exports from July 2024 to April 2025 reached their highest volume for this ten-month period in the last five marketing years. This translates to exports running about 10% percent above the past five-year average.

The U.S. dollar has weakened over the past few months, enhancing the value proposition of U.S. tomato products for foreign buyers. As of the first week of July, €1.00 euro now buys $1.18, up from $1.08 twelve months ago. Similarly, the Japanese yen has appreciated to ¥144 yen per dollar, compared to ¥160 yen per dollar last year. These shifts represent roughly a 10% currency-driven improvement in purchasing power for European and Japanese imports against the U.S. dollar.

At the same time, a stronger euro can present challenges for European processed tomato exports, as about 20% of European bulk tomato paste is sold to markets outside the eurozone. While this does not automatically translate into opportunities for other supplier origins, it does shift the competitive landscape and could influence future buying decisions.

We welcome the opportunity to discuss any of these topics with you further. And as always, we invite you to come visit us in California to see our operations and connect in person. If you can’t make it out this summer, our website is regularly updated with the latest crop information and market pricing.

Thank you!