News
The latest estimations of processing intentions released by the WPTC on 18 May seem to indicate that results for the 2018 season will be slightly higher than announced at the end of March, but still down from 2017 results (37.8 million mT). If nothing prevents these forecasts from being achieved, recorded worldwide operations are expected to reach approximately 36.55 million mT, a result that is 1.25 million mT (-3.3%) lower than production in 2017.
In the Mediterranean region, delays have been observed due to weather conditions that disrupted planting programs, but harvest prospects cannot accurately take into account the potential consequential impact on processing volumes. Forecasts for the AMITOM region remain at 15.76 million mT, with a slight increase considered by the Turkish industry compensating for the small drop in production planned by the Spanish industry.
Whereas price negotiations are still ongoing in California, processing intentions in that State remained unchanged as of 18 May, which should result in a harvest of approximately 11.8 million mT for the North American continent as a whole. The Chinese industry, however, has increased its forecasts to 4.1 million mT, despite major doubts remaining regarding the operations of the country's second biggest player, Chalkis, and the relatively high level of yields that such a target implies.
In the final count, the Northern Hemisphere is planning to process 32.2 million mT of tomatoes this year, which is 1.36 million tonnes less than in 2017 and, to date, 900 000 tonnes less than announced initially in January and February 2018.
Conversely, results and processing prospects for the Southern Hemisphere indicate a notable evolution between the decrease planned at the beginning of the year (-220 000 tonnes compared to final results in 2017 (4.226 million mT)) and the current situation that on the contrary indicates a small increase compared to last year, but which remains significant compared to initial intentions for 2018 (4 million mT). This change is due to good results in Chile, the Dominican Republic and Australia, along with a sharp increase in processing intentions in Brazil this year.
This latest estimate of the volumes to be processed in 2018 concurs with what we know of the worldwide consumption of tomato products, which will be one of the important topics discussed during the upcoming World Congress organized in Greece. It can be hoped that the increase observed in the Southern Hemisphere will not be reflected in the Northern Hemisphere's operations this year: such an increase would result in global processing volumes of approximately 38.8 million mT, a level that would likely lead to a further imbalance in production…
AMITOM members in the EU
In Portugal, the situation is similar to Spain, with planting delays of at least 15 days due to the rains which at least had the favorable impact of filling the water reserves, so there is no more worry about water availability during the summer. The weather has now improved with the temperatures starting to rise. The situation is very complex and not totally clear yet and it is probable that some of the surfaces will not be planted. It is therefore difficult at this stage to state an informed forecast, so the latest figure of 1.4 million tonnes remains valid for the moment. Because the harvest will be late, good weather will be needed in September.
The situation is quite complex in Spain, with soil preparation and transplanting operation seriously affected by rains, and having to stop and start throughout the second half of April and early May. Overall, there is a 20 days delay in both Andalucía, where planting has just finished, and in Extremadura where it continues. Similarly, there is a 10 days delay in Navarra. Due to the delay, some seedlings were lost or planted past their best. In Extremadura, it is estimated that final planted surfaces could be 5 to 10% lower than initially planned for this crop, but this will be confirmed when planting is finished. Moreover, some fields in Vegas Altas were affected by hail. Due to the delay in planting, a large proportion of the crop should be harvested in the higher risk period of the second half of September. The production estimate, which was in a range of 2.6 to 2.7 million tonnes, is now closer to 2.6 million tonnes.
In France, a succession of rainy periods disrupted planting operations, which are about ten days late in the south-western region and a week late in the South-East. This delay should not have any serious incidence and all the surfaces should be planted. The forecast remains at 185 000 tonnes.
In the North of Italy, the weather this spring has been unstable with a generally rainy first half of April, a hot second half of the month, then low temperatures and rains and some hail since the beginning of May in all areas. Consequently, the conditions have not been ideal for planting and plant growth, and there is concern that this could lead to the development of bacterial diseases. About 40% of the surfaces remain to be planted and operations could end in about three weeks if conditions are good. Due to these circumstances, the crop could be delayed by one or two weeks. As expected, the surfaces have been reduced overall by 5 to 7% compared with 2017 and the estimate of 2.5 million tonnes is confirmed.
In the south-central region of Italy, the weather situation has been similar and has led to a 7 to 10 days delay in transplanting. However, the rains have filled the reservoirs, which means there is no more worry about water availability for irrigation this summer. Transplanting has not been done in the best conditions, but the delay could be caught up if weather conditions are good from now on. The surfaces planted will be reduced by 5 to 10% and processing intentions are estimated at 2.4 million tonnes, a 5% reduction on the 2.55 million tonnes of 2017.
Negotiations have just been concluded at the same price as last year of EUR 87 /mT for round tomatoes and EUR 97 /mT for oblong tomatoes. Processors were hoping to reduce the gap between the two prices, for which there is no serious justification, especially as some of the oblong tomatoes are used for dicing.
So the total estimate for Italy stands at 4.9 million tonnes, but this volume will depend on farm yields.
In Greece, weather conditions in April and early May have generally been good, except for one episode of rain and hail which fortunately affected the tomato fields very little. Transplanting is now finished in the South and will end in a few days in the North where it is already at 95%. The plants are growing well with no diseases and the forecast is maintained at 420 000 tonnes.
Other AMITOM members
In Turkey, the production forecast has been raised to 1.5 million tonnes. Planting in the South was completed without any interference and planting in the North was at 30% as of 8 May. Some rains last week interrupted planting operations for a few days but did not cause any damage to already planted surfaces. Anyone who follows the Forex rates can see how the cost of raw materials in EUR/USD has changed.
In Ukraine, the weather has been good, hotter than usual and with no rain since the beginning of May. Consequently, there is no delay in planting operations which should be completed on schedule. Already 50 to 60% of the plants are in the fields. The volume forecast is confirmed at 750 000 tonnes.
In Russia, the provisional forecast remains at 500 000 tonnes to be processed in 2018 season. No new players have joined the sector, but there are plans to increase production in the existing factories in KBR and Astrakhan.
Other WPTC countries in the Northern Hemisphere
In China, transplanting started mid-April in Xinjiang and has now finished. The weather has been normal, except for a cold spell and some snow in northern Xinjiang around 7 May, but the latest information is that it had little impact on the seedlings already planted. Planted surfaces have been reduced by growers and the variety selection has been adjusted.
The weather of Inner Mongolia is good, and the temperatures have climbed early. So transplanting is 7 days in advance compared with other years. According to latest survey, a total surface of around 154 000 mu (10 268 hectares) will be planted. This is 5% lower than 2017, and a little higher than the early estimation of March.
The estimate of total surfaces planted in China remains at 630 000 mu (42 000 hectares), which could mean a production of between 4.1 and 4.4 million tonnes, based on last year’s yields.
In Japan, the updated crop forecast for 2018 remains at 32 000 tonnes from 450 hectares.
In Canada, preliminary contract tonnage for Ontario tomato processors is 467 079 short tons (423 727 metric tonnes). Ontario tomato prices for 2018 have not yet been fixed, as part of the pricing calculation is dependent on the California price. Spring was late arriving, with unseasonably cold temperatures into the beginning of May. However the weather is finally cooperating and temperatures are getting warmer.
In California, the majority of the planting should be completed by 20 May, with just a small portion to be done after that. So far, plant development looks good with fewer disease issues than last year at this time. The official estimate remains at 12.0 million short tons (10.886 million metric tonnes) and a new forecast estimate will be released by NASS on 31 May. Price negotiations continue at this time.
In Brazil, the estimate of planted surfaces remains at 16 558 ha, which with a yield of 85 mT/ha would bring a total production of 1 407 430 tonnes.
Southern Hemisphere WPTC members
In Argentina, the harvest finished before mid-April with 426 000 tonnes processed, from 6 232 hectares.
The distribution by region was:
– Mendoza 172 550 mT on 2 233 hectares,
– San Juan 162 360 mT on 1 959 hectares,
– Rio Negro 33 000 mT on 450 hectares,
– La Rioja 24 000 mT on 390 hectares,
– NOA 33 000 mT on 1 200 hectares (fresh market by-product).
In Chile, the harvest finished on 1 May, a few days after the original schedule date due to some rains in the southern area. In general terms, this was a good season with better average yields per hectare than expected, at 96 mT/ha. Consequently final production was 1 211 000 tonnes grown on the 12 550 hectares planted.
In Australia, final production was 227 636 tonnes.
In South Africa, the harvest season in the North of the country was delayed by about two weeks due to lower temperatures. Harvesting operations were stopped on 14 May due to unseasonal rain. It is early in the season but the yields per hectare are currently similar to the five year average. The impact of white fly and the activities of hawkers (where informal traders buy product directly from the farm) on the total volume is currently uncertain.
The forecast for the crop is currently at 165 000 tonnes compared to 180 000 tonnes last year. The main reason for the lower crop is the effect of the drought in the Western Cape where some of the factories have not opened due to the unavailability of irrigation water.
Non-member countries
Weather in the US Midwest has been inconsistent, with a demarcation line running west to east about half-way through the growing region. The area south of this line has experienced a tremendous start to the season, with good temperatures, good planting conditions and just enough rain to get things off to a good start. The northern part of the area has experienced consistent rainfall and is behind with its planting, and temperatures have been very cool, sometimes recording a 30°F difference between the north and south areas.
Some complementary data
Source: WPTC
