Canada: sharp slowdown of imports in 2022/2023

13/12/2023

François-Xavier Branthôme

Trade Data Monitor

Turkey,

Middle East

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United States and Italy share 96% of supplies to Canada

Canadian imports of tomato products over the last ten years rank the country between 10th and 13th place worldwide (11th in 2023) in the paste category (HS codes 200290), with 2 to 3% of the quantities absorbed each year globally. In 2022/2023, imports of pastes amounted to just under 62,000 tonnes, down 7% on the previous year but up 5% on the pre-Covid period.
In 2022/2023, Canada will have spent a quarter of its total tomato paste supply expenditure on foreign purchases, a fraction that is slightly up on previous years. The corresponding expenditure amounted to just over USD 83 million, i.e. 20% more than in 2021/2022, but also 72% more than in the three years preceding the Covid pandemic.
Historically, most of Canada's paste imports have come from neighboring United States and from Italy. These two suppliers alone have accounted for 96 to 97% of Canadian purchases in this category over the past ten years. However, in recent years – since the start of the pandemic – records show the emergence of other countries of origin, such as Chile, Egypt, Turkey and China, which in 2022/2023 accounted for up to 7% of Canada's foreign purchases.

Canada ranks between the 5th and the 8th place worldwide, among the leading importers of canned tomatoes (7th in 2022/2023), with 4 to 5% of total annual global imports. Canadian imports of canned tomatoes (HS codes 200210) totaled almost 66,000 tonnes in the last marketing year, down sharply compared to the previous year (-19%) and to the last three years (-13%), but more importantly, down 4% on the average annual volumes for the three pre-Covid years. It should be mentioned, however, that Canadian canned imports had recorded several consecutive increases as early as the 2015/2016 marketing year, even before the pandemic-related acceleration.
Last year, canned tomatoes accounted for just over 20% of Canadian spending on imports of tomato products, down slightly on previous years. Just over USD 72 million will be spent on foreign purchases of canned tomatoes in 2022/2023, virtually the same amount as in 2021/2022, but 35% more than in the pre-Covid period.
As with paste, canned tomatoes imported into Canada are almost exclusively of US and Italian origins, in a balance that has remained broadly stable over the last seven to eight years.

Between 2014 and 2018, Canada was the leading importer of tomato sauces and ketchup (HS codes 210320), with annual quantities sometimes exceeding 230,000 t of products. A revival of the Canadian processing industry and the relocation of certain remanufacturing activities have coincided with a gradual and significant reduction in foreign purchases in this category. The quantities imported in 2022/2023, virtually unchanged from the previous year at around 105,000 t, ranked Canada in 4th place worldwide, and accounted for just over 7% of global trade in the category (compared with 16-17% when Canadian supply purchases peaked in 2015/2016).
Canadian spending on imports of sauces and ketchup is expected to reach USD 183 million in 2022/2023, or about 54% of total expenditure. Despite a 14% increase compared with the previous year and 5% compared with the pre-Covid period, the amount paid by Canada last year remains well below the peak reached between 2014 and 2018 (around USD 230 million).
As in the other categories, two foreign suppliers account for almost all of the sauces on the Canadian market. Long relegated to secondary roles, Italian products have made significant progress over the last four or five years, at the expense of US sauces. However, the balance of power remains very unstable. In 2022/2023, Italian sauces accounted for just over 8% of Canadian purchases, compared with 89% for US productions. Imports of products from the Philippines and Mexico remain almost negligible.

Last year, total Canadian spending on supplies of tomato products amounted to almost USD 340 million, up 12% on 2021/2022 and almost 23% on the pre-Covid average.