Euromonitor forecasts annual growth of over 3% for the global pasta sauce market
The global pasta sauce market (including non-tomato sauces) weighed in at 2.6 million tonnes and EUR 9.3 billion in 2022, and can look forward to accelerating CAGR% growth between 2023 and 2027, of 3.4% in volume and 2.4% in value.
In 2022, global sales of pasta sauces (all types, with or without tomato) shifted 2.625 million tonnes of finished products and generated sales of EUR 9.35 billion in retail distribution channels. The overall breakdown of sales volumes shows that consumers prefer retail distribution (89%) to the food-service sector (11%). This proportion leads to a rough estimate of the total value of the global market in 2022 at some EUR 10.5 billion.
According to figures collected by Euromonitor, sales of pasta sauces grew at a CAGR% of 1.7% in quantities between 2017 and 2022. This growth is set to accelerate between 2023 and 2027, with an annual increase of 3.4%, taking global volumes to around 3.1 million tonnes in 2027.
As in all other sectors, during the Covid pandemic, sales of pasta sauces slowed sharply in food service channels between 2020 and 2022, largely offset over the same period by an acceleration in retail sales, before returning to "normal" levels as of 2023 (see additional information at the end of this article).
The pasta sauce market is highly contrasted. On a global scale, it is structured around three major consumption hubs (in 2022, North America, Latin America and Western Europe), an intermediate hub (Asia Pacific) and secondary regions (Australasia, Eastern EU and Middle East & Africa).
According to Euromonitor data, the most dynamic of these markets is currently Latin America, which is set to overtake the North American market and become the world's leading market for this sector in 2027, with over 1 million tonnes of finished products sold. The quantities sold on North American and Western European markets should continue to grow at annual rates of around 3% and 2% respectively, but remain well below this threshold by 2027.
The breakdown of pasta sauce sales through the various marketing channels varies according to the region under consideration. Australasia has the highest share of the food service sector (26%), and North and Latin America the lowest (4.9% and 5.0%). In Europe (Western and Eastern), the balance between retail and food service is around 79% / 21%. In the Asia-Pacific region, only 17.5% of pasta sauces are sold through the food service sector, while retail channels account for 88% of sales in the Middle East and Africa.
Over the next few years, growth markets should be in Latin America, where the already large market can expect average annual growth of over 5%. According to Euromonitor, sales in North America, which slowed sharply between 2017 and 2022, are expected to pick up again between 2022 and 2027, at an annual rate (CAGR%) of 3%. Volume growth in Western Europe over the same period is expected to be 2%. Several regions are expected to grow at faster rates (Asia-Pacific, Eastern Europe, Middle East, Africa), but from lower initial volumes (in 2022).
The overall result for the pasta sauces market as a whole suggests average annual growth over the 2022/2027 period of around 3.4%, practically double that of the 2017/2022 period.
The global market for pasta sauces is marked by wide price disparities between different regions. Between July 2019 and July 2023, the average price of 100 ml (or 100g) of pasta sauce was 3.4 times higher in North America than in Eastern Europe. The effects of inflation in Latin America have been hard felt, with the price of pasta sauces – a staple ingredient in the daily diet – rising at a rate of 39% per year, from 1.3 USD /100 ml (or g) in January 2019 to 5.0 USD in January 2023... Conversely, the price of pasta sauces has fallen in Asia Pacific over the same period, from 4.6 USD to 4.1 USD /100 ml (or g) (CAGR -3%). Other regional increases range from 3.6% (Middle East and Africa) to 6.7% (Australasia). The overall result is an average annual growth rate (CAGR%) of around 7%, bringing the average world price of pasta sauces from 2.5 USD /100 ml (or g) in January 2019 to 3.3 USD /100 ml (or g) in January 2023.
Some complementary data
Development and distribution of pasta sauce sales between the retail and food-service sectors up until 2022, with forecasts to 2027.
Comparative trends in sales of the different product categories in retail and food-service channels.
Sources: Euromonitor
